| dc.description.abstract | The main purpose of this study was to examine the levels and trends of
proximate determinants of fertility in Kenya nationally and by sub-groups.
The study provided a critical review of the three principal proximate
determinants of fertility: marnage, contraception and lactational
infecundability and then estimated their fertility inhibiting effect using
Bongaarts model. The contribution of each of the proximate determinants to
fertility is studied in 1998 and 2003 nationally and for each subgroup. The
subgroups considered in this study were the region of residence, place of
residence and levels of education. After estimation of each intermediate
fertility variable, estimates were then compared for 1998 and 2003 KDHS.
.Comparison was also done with the previous findings of Kavali (1998) and
Wakoli (1991).
The study established that the 1998 model TFR of 4.96 was lower than 2003
modelTFR of 4.41. This was attributed to the high effects of marriage in 2003
than the same effects of marriage in 1998. The 1998 model TFR of 4.96 is
higher than the reported DHS TFR of 4.7. WhiJe 2003 model TFR of 4.41 is
lower than the reported TFR of 4.9. In the period 1998 to 2003, the finding
was that fertility decline was not uniform in all subgroups. The study also
suggested that in period 1993-1998 at the national level as well as among all
the subgroups/Jactational infecundability was the lowest followed by the
index of marriage and then contraception. This implies that in 1998 DES,
the most important fertility-inhibiting index was lactation, followed by
marriage and then contraception. The current study findings are compared
to earlier studies by Kavali (1998 and Wakoli (1991) the trend was found to
be' similar.. The findings from 2003 KDHS were quite different. The survey
findings here showed that nationally, marriage was the most important
\I
fertility inhibiting variable followed by lactational infecundability and finally
by contraception. This suggests a decline on the role of contraception.
The analysis of the trends on the three proximate factors revealed that the
reducing effect of the three intermediate variables continued declining. The
reducing effect of contraception in 1998 to 2003 shows a complete decline
with a drop in fertility reducing effect in all subgroups. This implies that this
index did not reduce fertility in any subgroup. Instead, the variable
contributed to fertility mcrease. The trend in fertility reducing effect of
marriage shows an increase meaning that the index of marriage is becoming
the most important fertility-inhibiting variable. Lactation shows an
inconsistent trend in its fertility reducing effect. This might lead to a higher
future population in Kenya if the trend continues.
The findings of this study provide a basis for drawing some policy conclusions
and making recommendations with the aim of achieving a further decline in
fertility in Kenya. First it is recommended that family planning programrnes
should be intensified in all regions since the index of contraception is the
highest.with the least. fertility inhibiting effect in 1998 and 2003. Education
should also be encouraged not only at primary level but also at higher levels
of education since the study found out that marriage and contraception
indicesdecreased with increase in the level of Education. | en |
