| dc.description.abstract | The study set out to find the contribution of each of the principal proximate determinants of fertility
to the change in fertility observed between 2003 and 2008/09. Bongaarts model as proposed in 1978
and modified in 1983 was used in this study. Four factors were examined and these were marriage,
contraception, postpartum infecundability and sterility. The other factor, abortion, which was
identified by Bongaarts as being a key factor was not examined due to lack of data. The study first
calculated the index of each of the four factors for both 2003 and 2008/09. After calculating these
indexes, fertility levels for each of the two years were estimated by fitting the indexes into Bongaarts
model. Using the estimated total fertility rates, the study estimated the reduction of total fecundity
rate (TF) due to each of the four factors. Lastly, the study decomposed the estimated fertility change
between 2003 and 2008/09 into proportions that were due to each of the four proximate
determ inants.
The findings of the study indicate that TFR declined by 7.5% at the aggregate level between 2003
and 2008/09. This decline is decomposed into a 3.3% decline due to change in marriage patterns, a
7.1% decrease due to an increase in contraceptive practice and a 2.9% increase due to shortening of
the duration of postpartum infecundability. At sub population level TFR decreased in all regions
except in Central province where fertility increased by 3.0% between 2003 and 2008/09. This
increase can mostly be attributed to the shortening of the duration of postpartum infecundability
which contributed 8.1% increase. A change in marriage pattern in Central province also contributed
to the increase in TFR by 1.9%. The change in TFR in Central would even have been higher had the
effect of postpartum infecundability and change in marriage pattern not been offset by the increase
in contraceptive practice. Among all the regions, Western province had the highest decline in TFR of
about 19% between 2003 and 2008/09. The province also had the highest increase in contraceptive
practice as attested by 16.0% decrease in TFR due to this practice. TFR among women with no
education, women with secondary education and higher and the richest women increased between
2003 and 2008/09. It is interesting to note that, among the most educated women, all the 3 key
proximate determinants contributed to the increase in TFR between 2003 and 3008/09 with change
in marriage pattern and decrease in the duration of postpartum infecundability each contributing
about 4% in the 12% of estimated fertility increase.
Richest women also saw their TFR increase between the two reference years by 2.2%. This increase
was mostly due to the shortening of the duration of postpartum infecundability which contributed
4.0% in this increase. There was no change in marriage pattern among the richest between 2003 and
2008/09. All in all, increase in the contraceptive practice had the highest impact in the decrease of
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fertility between 2003 and 2008/09 at the aggregate and across all sub population levels except
among the most educated women. Except in Eastern province, the duration of postpartum
infecundability decreased at the aggregate and at sub population levels leading to an increase in
fertility due to this factor between 2003 and 2008/09. The highest such increase was recorded among
women with no education and women in Central province.
The study recommends that due to the important role contraception is playing in fertility reduction in
the country, there is need to sustain the current trend in the increase in contraception prevalence. In
particular, special attention should be paid to regions that have continued to register low
contraception prevalence such as North Eastern province by addressing the known factors that are
responsible for this. These factors are accessibility, affordability, and awareness. The case of Central
province calls for enhancing other fertility control methods other than just relying on contraception.
Despite the province having some of the highest increase in contraception prevalence, it still
recorded an increase in fertility rate. Contraception alone is not enough to reduce fertility levels.
Lastly, the study recommends that research be done on the role of induced abortion in Kenya in
order to give more accurate estimates of the impact of fertility inhibiting variables and their
implication on family planning programs. | en |
