Estimation of fertility in Kenya using parity progression model

Abstract

The study was intended to estimate Kenya's fertility from information derived from 1993

KDHS. The measurements used herein are parity progression ratios ( pace of childbearing), the mean children ever-born (quantum of childbearing) and the mean length of birth intervals. It (study) was also meant to analyse the applicability of the model to the Kenya's data. The model used in the analysis to obtain the estimates was parity progression model developed by Yadav - Bhattacharya a modification of Srinivasan model. This model require information on closed birth interval specifically the last birth interval and open birth interval distribution respectively. The last birth interval was considered because it is more recent and therefore fairly reliable. The derivation of method is presented in chapter three while the application and discussion of the results is contained in chapter five. Chapter two outlines literature review of the previous studies while chapter four deals with the quality of data and chapter seven contains summary, conclusion and recommendations. The quality of data was established to be fairly high. From the results of the analysis it was observed that pace of childbearing (parity progression ratios) at national level dropped steeply from parity two to parity four, the drop was then steady and slow. The drop as represented by parity progression ratios moved from 0.78228 in parity two to 0.69574 in parity eight. The level of fertility measured by MCEB was 3.51 per woman. According to the measures obtained by other background characteristics i.e age cohorts, educational levels and place of residence showed consistent results as the ones given by convefitional methods. It was also noted that despite the non - adjustmentof the data the model gave reliable results and

more so a better understanding of what goes on in the process of fertility change