Simulation of the Impact of Deforestation on Rainfall in the Lake Victoria Basin
Date
2008Author
Muhati, David F
Ininda, Joseph M
Opijah, Franklin J
Type
ArticleLanguage
enMetadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Over the past four decades, Lake Victoria basin has experienced
drastic environmental changes on account of both natural and anthropogenic
factors. The natural factors include prolonged droughts and the recent
emergence of water hyacinth in the Lake, while anthropogenic factors
include the deforestation rates, poor agricultural practices, and destruction
of critical wetlands. This study examines the potential impact of deforestation
on the rainfall over the lake Victoria basin.
To assess the potential impact of deforestation on rainfall over the
region, the General Circulation Model (GCM) ECHAM5 was applied.
ECHAM5 was used to predict the possible impact of land cover and land
use changes on rainfall using land cover and land use scenarios based on
the Integrated Model to Assess Global Environment (IMAGE). The projected
vegetation cover for 2050 was used to model the impact of deforestation,
which indicated a general decrease in the canopy.
The results from the model indicate a decrease in rainfall over
many parts, although some areas showed increased rainfall. From the
study we conclude that while deforestation has an impact on climate, there
seem to be a complex interaction between forest and the rainfall generation
mechanism.
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