Deterministic and Probabilistic prediction approaches in Seasonal to Inter-annual climate forecasting
Abstract
Many countries in Africa are prone to extreme weather and climate events and these
events have in the past had major negative impacts on various sectors of the economy
including agriculture, health, food security, energy and other key social and economic
sectors of these countries. Floods and drought has been a common feature in the recent
past resulting in massive destruction of property, loss of life, diseases, and food shortages
among many other socio-economic miseries.
Recent advances in the science of weather and climate prediction and in particular,
seasonal to interannual prediction has made it possible to predict climate with improved
accuracy in a time-spans ranging from seasons to over one year in advance. Such
knowledge can successfully be used to enhance agricultural production and minimise loss
of life and property as well as provide critical information for decision-making.
The objective of this presentation is to highlight some of the approaches to deterministic
and probabilistic seasonal to interannual climate prediction applicable to Africa. We shall
briefly start by introducing some basic concepts of probability and statistics
URI
https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/modules/documents/mod4_Oludhe.pdfhttp://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/34521
Citation
RA 1 EXPERT MEETING ON THE APPLICATION OF CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR AGRICULTURE Banjul, Gambia, 9-13 December 2002Publisher
Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi