dc.identifier.citation | Onwonga, R.N, Mbuvi, J.P, Kironchi, G ,Githinji, M.Modelling the potential impact of climate change on sorghum and cowpea production in semi-arid areas of Kenya using the agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM,Second RUFORUM Biennial Meeting 20 - 24 September 2010, Entebbe, Uganda | en |
dc.description.abstract | Managing crop production risks associated with inter-annual
climate variability and climate change has received insignificant
attention in the semi-arid areas of Kenya. Against this backdrop,
the potential impact of climate change on sorghum
(Sorghum bicolor) and cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) production in the
semi-arid areas of Kenya will be assessed using the Agricultural
Production System Simulator (APSIM). The study will employ
participatory tools in the use of APSIM model to identify risks
and cropping system improvement options and designing
cropping strategies for field experimentation. The field
experiments will be conducted in Makueni district of Eastern
Province, Kenya. Initially, a farmers’ workshop will be held to
gather information on farmers’ experience with recent climatic
changes and possible causes, effect on current farming systems,
coping and adaption strategies to current management practices.
Farm households’ perceptions of risks, options to reduce climatic
risks, specific vulnerabilities of the current cropping systems
and coping strategies will be documented using semi-structured
interviews during farm surveys. This is in addition to establishing
the socio-economic and agricultural systems setting of the
smallholder farmers. Potential technologies to address the
anticipated negative impacts of climate change in respect of
cowpea (legume) and sorghum (cereal) cropping system will
jointly be identified with the farmers and a subset of tactical
adaptation options identified. The options will initially be tested
on-station in the first year and on farm in the second year. The
on station experiments will be conducted for two (four seasons)
years to model sorghum and cowpea growth and soil-water,
soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a legume-cereal
cropping system. The APSIM model will be validated to simulate
both the legume and cereal components of the cropping system.
The integrity of the simulated system will be evaluated by
comparing the simulated performance of the crops with actual
experimental crop data and by exploring Managing crop production risks associated with inter-annual
climate variability and climate change has received insignificant
attention in the semi-arid areas of Kenya. Against this backdrop,
the potential impact of climate change on sorghum
(Sorghum
bicolor
) and cowpea (
Vigna unguiculata
) production in the
semi-arid areas of Kenya will be assessed using the Agricultural
Production System Simulator (APSIM). The study will employ
participatory tools in the use of APSIM model to identify risks
and cropping system improvement options and designing
cropping strategies for field experimentation. The field
experiments will be conducted in Makueni district of Eastern
Province, Kenya. Initially, a farmers’ workshop will be held to
gather information on farmers’ experience with recent climatic
changes and possible causes, effect on current farming systems,
coping and adaption strategies to current management practices.
Farm households’ perceptions of risks, options to reduce climatic
risks, specific vulnerabilities of the current cropping systems
and coping strategies will be documented using semi-structured
interviews during farm surveys. This is in addition to establishing
the socio-economic and agricultural systems setting of the
smallholder farmers. Potential technologies to address the
anticipated negative impacts of climate change in respect of
cowpea (legume) and sorghum (cereal) cropping system will
jointly be identified with the farmers and a subset of tactical
adaptation options identified. The options will initially be tested
on-station in the first year and on farm in the second year. The
on station experiments will be conducted for two (four seasons)
years to model sorghum and cowpea growth and soil-water,
soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a legume-cereal
cropping system. The APSIM model will be validated to simulate
both the legume and cereal components of the cropping system.
The integrity of the simulated system will be evaluated by
comparing the simulated performance of the crops with actual
experimental crop data and by exploring Managing crop production risks associated with inter-annual
climate variability and climate change has received insignificant
attention in the semi-arid areas of Kenya. Against this backdrop,
the potential impact of climate change on sorghum
(Sorghum
bicolor
) and cowpea (
Vigna unguiculata
) production in the
semi-arid areas of Kenya will be assessed using the Agricultural
Production System Simulator (APSIM). The study will employ
participatory tools in the use of APSIM model to identify risks
and cropping system improvement options and designing
cropping strategies for field experimentation. The field
experiments will be conducted in Makueni district of Eastern
Province, Kenya. Initially, a farmers’ workshop will be held to
gather information on farmers’ experience with recent climatic
changes and possible causes, effect on current farming systems,
coping and adaption strategies to current management practices.
Farm households’ perceptions of risks, options to reduce climatic
risks, specific vulnerabilities of the current cropping systems
and coping strategies will be documented using semi-structured
interviews during farm surveys. This is in addition to establishing
the socio-economic and agricultural systems setting of the
smallholder farmers. Potential technologies to address the
anticipated negative impacts of climate change in respect of
cowpea (legume) and sorghum (cereal) cropping system will
jointly be identified with the farmers and a subset of tactical
adaptation options identified. The options will initially be tested
on-station in the first year and on farm in the second year. The
on station experiments will be conducted for two (four seasons)
years to model sorghum and cowpea growth and soil-water,
soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a legume-cereal
cropping system. The APSIM model will be validated to simulate
both the legume and cereal components of the cropping system.
The integrity of the simulated system will be evaluated by
comparing the simulated performance of the crops with actual
experimental crop data and by exploring water use, denitrification and leaching. It is envisioned that the
APSIM model will allow for quick exploration of production
outcomes of a range of management alternatives under a range
of climatic scenarios (realized or predicted), and for a range of
soil conditions. This is in addition to provision of valuable
information for evaluating a wide range of cropping system options | en |