Forecasting Demand in Health Services: the Case of University of Nairobi Clinics
Abstract
The provision of health services is an important aspect of
socio-economic development and improving them plays an important
role in raising people's standard of living.
Taking a quick glance at any hospital or clinic in Kenya, ones
attention is attracted to whether the management of these health
programs has taken due consideration to the challenges the program
poses. On several occasions, Kenyans face a number of problems in
trying to use the few facilities available in these hospitals and
clinics.
This study,set out to model demand patterns for the University of
Nairobi Health Cl inics by developing time series forecasting
models for·each of the clinics and for all the clinics tqgether.
These models, it is hoped, can assist in the prediction of demand
for the health services in the University Clinics.
The result of the study indicates that the attendance process can ".
be modelled using time series analysis. This is supported by the
F- test carried out. This test showed that all the clinics except
Upper Kabete (staff) had significant F- ratios (at 95% significance
level) and thus the demand is time dependent. The models were
validated and predictive powers of between 95.47% and 71.78% were
achieved for the specific models developed. The overall model has
a predictive power of 91.7%.
Citation
Degree Of Master of Business and AdministrationPublisher
University of Nairobi Faculty of Commerce
Description
Management Research Project Submitted In Partial
Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Of
Master of Business and Administration, Faculty Of
Commerce, University Of Nairobi