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    Stochastic modelling of regional annual rainfall anomalies in East Africa

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    Date
    1986
    Author
    Ogallo, Laban A J
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
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    Abstract
    ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted to areal annual rainfall of two homogeneous regions in East Africa with rainfall records extending between the period 1922-80. The areal estimates of the regional rainfall were derived from the time series of the first eigenvector, which was significantly dominant at each of the two regions. The first eigenvector accounted for about 80% of the total rainfall variance in each region. The class of ARIMA (p, d, q) models which best fitted the areal indices of relative wetness/dryness were the ARMA (3, 1) models. Tests of forecasting skill however indicated low skill in the forecasts given by these models. In all cases the models accounted for less than 50% of the total variance. Spectral analysis of the indices time series indicated dominant quasi-periodic fluctuations around 2.2-2.8 years, 3-3.7 years, 5-6 years and 10-13 years. These spectral bands however accounted for very low proportion of the total rainfall variance.
    URI
    http://www.researchgate.net/publication/233137624_Stochastic_modelling_of_regional_annual_rainfall_anomalies_in_East_Africa
    http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/38669
    Citation
    Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 13, No. I, 1986
    Publisher
    Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi
    Subject
    Stochastic modelling
    Rainfall anomalies
    East Africa
    Description
    Full Text
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    • Faculty of Science & Technology (FST) [4264]

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