The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in central and eastern Kenya

Abstract

This case study presents a detailed climate impact assessment for the Kirinyaga, Embu and Machakos districts, which include a range of conditions from a humid tea-growing agroclimate to semi-arid grazing lands. The study area's climate is described and the nature of drought discussed. Kenya's past and present policies toward development of the semi-arid (traditionally drought-prone) areas and drought preparedness are reviewed. Various agroclimatic and socio-economic aspects and some links between them are explored, utilizing several models. The policy implications of the results are then discussed. The impact of climatic variability on agricultural production was estimated based on 5 defined climatic scenarios using a simple agroclimatic zonation in conjunction with the ratio between total rainfall and potential evaporation on an annual or seasonal basis. A dynamic crop production model using meteorological data for 10-d periods and some soils data were also utilized for examining impacts on maize yields. Relationships between climate, grass, meat and milk production were employed in assessing climatic impacts on livestock enterprises. A review of the strategies to lessen drought impacts which were available to and used by the smallholder farmers, who constitute a major part of Kenya's population, is given. General trends is smallholders' vulnerability to drought are documented.