Predicting drought in Kenya: prospects and challenges

Abstract

The following aspects of drought prediction in Kenya are reviewed: (1) dynamics and causes; (2) socio-economic impacts, including the recent integrated global efforts to address such problems; (3) prospects for improved predictability; and (4) challenges to drought prediction in Kenya. The main systems that control rainfall variability in Kenya are: the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); east African monsoon winds; cyclones and anticyclones; jetstreams; extratropical weather systems; thermally induced mesoscale systems; and teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), quasi-biennial oscillation, and intraseasonal wave. The vulnerability of Kenya to interannual rainfall variability highlights the need for timely and effective drought monitoring, diagnosis, long-range prediction, and early warning. The devastating impacts of drought, together with post-disaster relief and rehabilitation efforts, are illustrated, using the 1996-1997 drought, one of the worst in recent years. Predicting droughts in Kenya is difficult because of problems associated with: data availability; real-time monitoring systems; efficient communication; research, training, and equipment; mismanagement and abuse of drought information; financial resources; and, timely availability of drought products and services from global climate centres.