| dc.description.abstract | The main objective of this study was to examine Kenya's tempo of fertility through birth interval dynamics and the parity progression schedule. The specific objectives of the study were three fold. The first was to estimate parity progression ratios for each parity using birth intervals. The second was to examine the differentials in parity progression ratios according to educational level, place of residence and region of residence. The third was to examine differentials in birth interval distributions according to educational level, place of residence and region of residence.
The study utilized the 2003 KDHS data set. Yadav-Bhattacharya modification to Srinivasan parity progression model was used to obtain the parity progression ratios estimates. The model requires information on closed birth interval specifically the last birth interval and open birth interval distribution respectively. The last birth interval was considered since it is more recent thus fairly reliable.
The main findings of this study revealed that at national level, the values of PPR's ranged between 0.9319 at parity (3) and 0.6780 at parity (9). Approximately 92.6% of those women who had the first child progressed to have a second child. Moreover, the proportion of women who progressed to parity three increased to 93%. On the contrary, the proportion of women progressing to parity four, dropped to 89.7 % and the decline pattern was observed to continue through parities 5 and 6. This was followed by a slight increase in the proportion of women who progressed to parity seven which was 84 % percent. Later on at higher parities, proportion of women who progressed to the eighth and the ninth child declined i.e. 79% and 67% respectively.
The results of the estimates of the parity progression ratios and their behaviour across the parities strongly indicated the existence of fertility declines though the pace and quantum of childbearing was still high. These high figures (approximately 68 percent at parity 9) at higher parities suggest that many women still have propensity to give birth even at higher parities. The level of fertility measured by MCEB was 5.7 per woman. Measures obtained by selected background characteristics i.e educational level, place of residence and type of place of residence showed consistent results as the ones given by conventional methods.
The results of this study recommended the following. First, the relationship between ACBI and level of fertility suggest that the long length of LCBI and low value of MCEB among the secondary women may be due to limiting practices encouraged by family planning programmes or shorter time spent during childbearing. Thus the longer inter-birth spacing implies that the family size for those with secondary and above level of education will necessarily be low. Education of women then still remains one of the principal ways at which low fertility can be achieved but this is only possible when it is up to secondary level and above thus policies should be formulated to increase educational opportunities for girls to secondary level and above.
Secondly, the results depicted a continuous decline in proportion of women progressing from parity 4 through 6 and an upsurge in parities 3 and 7. Thus, further research in those particular parities needs to be conducted to establish the reasons for the upsurge. Thirdly, trends in parity progression ratios could not be established as one data set was used. Further research is recommended to establish the patterns and trends of parity progression ratios using all the data sets that is, (KFS, KDHS 1993, KDHS 1998 and KDHS 2003). | en_US |
