Forecasting Patient Needs in a Donor Funded Health Care Project in Kenya
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Date
2013-08Author
Wainaina, Gituro
Njoroge, Brian M.
Type
ArticleLanguage
enMetadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. The focus of this
research paper is in the area of forecasting. The research approach adopted is a case
study of the Nutrition and HIV Program (NHP), which is a donor funded public health
project. The general objective of this paper was to forecast the demand for patient needs
in a donor funded project. Specifically, this paper sought to establish a suitable
forecasting method that can accurately predict demand for nutrition commodities. In
order to establish a more suitable forecasting method, Univariate Box – Jenkins (UBJ)
methodology was used and two models were tested and Auto Regressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA (0, 1, 2)) model provided a better fit and was chosen as the
model of choice for a short run forecast horizon. The main conclusion drawn from this
paper is that, UBJ-ARIMA models are useful as benchmarks for forecasting and therefore
they should be viewed as complements to a reliable forecasting process. This paper
recommends that public health projects need to consider adopting business forecasting
methods that will provide a better glimpse of the future based on historical events rather
than relying on disease morbidity data trends.
URI
http://journals.uonbi.ac.ke/damr/article/view/1162http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/56364
Citation
DBA Africa Management Review, August 2013, Vol 3 No 2. Pp. 24-39Sponsorhip
University of Nairobi, School of BusinessPublisher
DBA Africa Management Review School of Business, University of Nairobi
Subject
Auto-correlation functionPartial auto-correlation function
Residual auto-correlations short run forecast
Public health project
Un-differenced
Stationarity
ARIMA
UBJ
Description
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