| dc.description.abstract | The concept of diffusion has interested academics and practitioners in marketing
for decades. It signifies the rate at which new product diffuses into the
marketplace or the rate at which consumers try a new product. The simplest but
most widely used mathematical solution to this problem is the standard Bass
growth model for the timing of the initial purchase of new products (Bass, 1969).
The diffusion theory often guides the construction of forecasting models for new
product diffusion. To match the model with data, one needs to put forward a
statistical model. This is what this project sets out to do.
In this research we apply the Bass model to innovations in integrated system
software. The purpose is to predict the timing and the magnitude of the sales
peak and to determine whether the data follow the typica••l diffusion curve of
innovations from the Bass model. Parameter estimates will be derived from
analysis used in conjunction with the model to provide good descriptions of the
growth of any new integrated software in the market.
Some limitations on its use were noted however, particularly the effects of early
fluctuations in the adoption process and consequent problems in forecasting
..:
from early data. | en |
