dc.contributor.author | Muthama, N zioka J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Njeri, Joseph Karianjah | |
dc.contributor.author | Manene, Moses M. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-08-01T12:54:09Z | |
dc.date.available | 2014-08-01T12:54:09Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2014-06 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Muthama, N. J., Njeri, J. K., & Manene, M. M. The influence of El-niño Southern Oscillation on seasonal rainfall over the 47 counties of Kenya. | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://www.accessinterjournals.org/aijas/PDF/2014/June/Muthama%20et%20al.pdf | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11295/73518 | |
dc.description.abstract | The influence of the El
-
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution phases and monthly precipitation over
the 47
counties in Kenya
i
s
analysed using Pearson product moment correlation analysis. Anomalies of Sea
Surface temperatures from the National Climate Data Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration are employed for the periods 1983
-
2012 whil
e estimates of precipitation rate (in mm/day) are
sourced from the African rainfall Climatology project version 2 of the Climate Prediction Centre. Using GrADs
software, and Climate data Operators, estimates of Precipitation are extracted for each station
representing
each of the 47 counties of Kenya. The study has shown that El
-
Niño Southern Oscillation can explain as high
as 50% of seasonal rainfall over the country during the season of October
-
December. However, the ENSO
signal are found to be less influ
ential on the March
-
May rainfall over the country explaining lows of 2% of the
rainfall variability
.
Time series plots of the analysed Niño indices and rainfall anomalies are found to be in
harmony during the October
-
December season but in complete disharm
ony during the March
-
May season on
a zero lagged analysis. The study has found that, 46% of rainfall variability over Northern counties of
Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana as well as coastal counties of Mombasa, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale and Taita
-
Taveta can
be explained by the El
-
Niño Southern Oscillation evolution during the same period of occurrence.
Similarly, over the Central highlands, counties of Meru, Nyeri, Laikipia and Nakuru as well as western
counties of Trans
-
Nzoia, Bungoma, Vihiga, Kisumu, Homab
ay and Kisii, the El
-
Niño Southern Oscillation can
explain highs of 36% in seasonal rainfall variance during the October
-
December season. The variability
explained is found to decrease with increase in lag with predictability potential of rainfall over man
y counties
confined to one month lag during the October
-
December season | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | University of Nairobi | en_US |
dc.subject | ENSO, seasonal precipitation rate, Pearson moment product correlation, standardized anomalies , downscaling | en_US |
dc.title | The Influence Of El-niño Southern Oscillation On Seasonal Rainfall Over The 47 Counties Of Kenya | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.type.material | en_US | en_US |