| dc.description.abstract | The main objective of the study was to review the sub-national projection methods and to use the most appropriate method to project the primary school-age population among the sub-counties in the former Nyanza Province. In order to achieve this goal, the study projected the 1999 population of the counties to 2009 using the four models namely; the share of population model, share of growth model, the growth difference model and the shortcut cohort model. The study deduced that shortcut model gave better projection than the rest and thus was used to project the school-age population among the sub-counties.
The study then used the 2009 census data for the counties to project the sub-county school-age population. From the 2009 census data it was deduced that the school-age population would increase in all the sub-counties using a base population of 2010.This base population was then projected to 2030 making assumptions of constant fertility, mortality and migration throughout the study period. The counties population would increase with Kisii having the highest, followed by Kisumu, Homa-bay, Migori, Siaya then Nyamira was the last.
The study predicted an increasing demand for teachers, infrastructure and other amenities at the primary school level. Since the pupil teacher ratio in the year 2009 was 46.78:1 (UNESCO, 2000).This does not tally with the accepted ratio by the ministry of education‟s ratio of 40:1.It means more teachers should be employed to conform to the recommended ratio. The class size which is easier to manage, give maximum attention per pupil and also control discipline is 40.This means therefore that as the number increases more classrooms should be constructed to cater for the increased number. Other amenities like separate toilets for boys and girls should also be considered. The recommended pupil to toilet ratio by the MOE is 30:1 for boys and 25:1 for girls, thus there is need for increased number of toilets to maintain good hygiene in primary schools | en_US |
