Effect of infant mortality on fertility in Kenya
Abstract
This study examines the effect of infant mortality on fertility. Specifically the study
sought to examine whether the effect of infant mortality on fertility depends on the
level of fertility and also to examine whether the effect of infant mortality on fertility
varies across parity.
This study used data from birth histories of women restricted to last five years prior to
2008/9 KDHS. The method of analysis used in this study was Cox proportional
hazard regression. The results indicated that the death of a child leads to a higher risk
of having another birth in both regions and across parity. However effect is
confounded by length of previous birth interval and duration of breastfeeding.
Breastfeeding was found to be associated with a higher risk of having another birth in
both the fertility regions and also across the parities though with varying magnitudes.
Short preceding intervals were also associated with a higher risk of having another
birth in both fertility regions and also across the birth orders. The effect of infant
mortality may be working through the curtailment of breastfeeding to affect the
probability of having another birth. There is also evidence of behavioural effects
through non-use of contraception after curtailment of breastfeeding. These results
suggest existence of both biological and behavioural effects though more studies are
needed before firm conclusions can be made regarding the distinguishing of
biological and behavioural effects.
The main policy implications that can be drawn from this study are that child survival
programmes should be improved as part of the strategy to lower fertility in Kenya
since the death of an infant leads to a higher risk of having another birth. More
emphasis should also be placed on exclusive breastfeeding since short breastfeeding
durations led to higher risks of the woman having another birth. There is need for
further research on the effect of breastfeeding and amenorrhea and also contraceptive
use as this study didn’t include the two variables because of limitations on
breastfeeding data on the specific times of cessation of breastfeeding and the
breastfeeding status of all children. The data on contraceptive use was also limiting as
there is the need for the specific times in which there was contraceptive use in terms
of adoption and discontinuation.
Publisher
University of Nairobi