| dc.description.abstract | Meteorological parameters are believed to play a role in the influenza seasonality;
influenza activities occurs sporadically all year round in the tropical regions with
some peaks coinciding with rainy season and cold months. In this study, Influenza
is modelled as a 5-dimensional deterministic system of ODEs with a variable transmission
rate expressed as an exponential function of the meteorological parameters.
We analysed the model and established local and global stability of disease free and
endemic equilibrium points, the equations are solved numerically in matlab using
ODE23 solver
The findings show that an increase in rainfall leads to an increase in influenza infections
in the following month and a decrease in temperature leads to an increase
in the influenza infections. The transmission rate was approximated from the data
and we found that the peaks in the reproduction number and influenza infections
occurs almost simultaneously and similarly when the reproduction number decreases,
influenza infections also decreases. | en_US |
