Sectoral Population Projections for Isiolo County, Kenya

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to carry out the sectoral population projections for Isiolo County between 2010 and 2030. To achieve this goal, the study employed the cohort component method to project population of Kenya and then the population of Eastern Region, and finally the population of Isiolo County. The study used the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census data for projecting populations after subjecting it to data quality assessment to detect the degree of accuracy. From the 2009 census data, Isiolo’s population was 143,294 people. The study projected that this population will increase from 146,569 in 2010, to 153,802 in 2015, to 161,631 in 2020, to 169,466 in 2025 and 177,022 by 2030. After obtaining the projected population for Isiolo County, the study used the projected population to generate projections of school age, youth and labour force for the county. The study found out that in Isiolo County, children of ECDE school-age are projected to increase from 14,807 in 2010 to 16,329 in 2020 and 17,884 by 2030; those of primary school-age will increase from 32,869 in 2010 to 36,247 in 2020 and 39,698 by 2030; while those of secondary school-age will increase from 13,465 in 2010 to 14,848 in 2020 and 16,262 by 2030. The projected labour force population is set to increase from 76,392 people in 2010 to 84,243 people in 2020 and 92,263 people by 2030. The study also projected that youth population is set to increase from 30,332 youths in 2010 to 33,449 youths in 2020 and to 36,633 youths by 2030. Based on the findings, there is need for further research which should focus on similar study to this one on the sectoral population projections focusing on other counties in Kenya and comparing their results.