Fertility Differentials Between Mombasa and Nairobi Counties Based on Kdhs 2014

Abstract

Estimation of fertility has been done in Kenya since 1980s by various researchers using census and surveys datasets. The continuous update of data has made it possible to estimates current fertility rate in Kenya. The aim of this study is to estimate the current fertility rate in Nairobi and Mombasa counties and by socioeconomic factor level, using the results obtained this study also predict the fertility levels in Kenya for the year 2019. The socioeconomic factors explored in this study are Education level, marital status level and the use of contraceptives. Relational Gompertz method is used to estimate the total fertility rate at the county and national level, the dataset used in this study is KDHS 2014. Nairobi and Mombasa counties are majorly urban centers with Nairobi being the most Population County and Mombasa being the second most populated county in Kenya. Results obtained show that women with higher level of education have low TFR in both Counties: 3.03 in Mombasa and 2.25 in Nairobi while those with no education have high fertility level: 6.8 in Mombasa and 5.11 in Nairobi. Married women in Nairobi County fertility rate is at 3.67 which is lower than those who have never been in a union (4.58) while in Mombasa married women have a fertility rate of 4.2 higher fertility rate compared to those who have never been in a union (3.52). TFR among those using contraceptives is low (2.9 in Nairobi and 3.4 in Mombasa) compared to those who are not using (3.9 in Nairobi and 4.1 in Mombasa). Teenagers with no primary education shy away from using contraceptive (1 percent) while 69 percent of those with primary education being major users of contraceptives. The total fertility rate in Nairobi is 2.85 while the total fertility rate in Mombasa is 3.2. Fertility rate in Kenya is 3.18 in 2014 and it is predicted to be 3.00 in the year 2019. Policies should focus on encouraging female education beyond primary level and creating awareness on the various available contraceptives methods in both Counties and urban areas in general. The result obtained in this study can be used as a baseline for future studies.