A Comparison of Parametric Methods for Modeling Mosquito Survival Using Temperature and Age-Dependent Survival Data
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Date
2018-11Author
Nyatuga, Gideon Nyakundi
Type
ThesisLanguage
enMetadata
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It is estimated that Malaria effects over 200million people every year, and accounts for about
750,000 deaths during the same period. The adult female Anopheles mosquito accounts
for all transmissions of the human malaria pathogen, Plasmodium. The disease control
measures often include interventions aimed at reducing the survival of the adult female
Anopheles mosquitoes. Various factors such as temperature and age have been found to
be associated with vector mortality. Whereas much effort has been paid to evaluate the
effects on the vector survival, little research has been done on how temperature and time
affect the vector adult life-history parameters.
The objective of the present study is to compare the performance of four parametric models,
namely, Gompertz, gamma, Weibull, and exponential models to determine the best model
for analyzing the survival of the female Anopheles mosquito. Using experimental data
from a mosquito survival experiment, the present study compares the performance of the
models in tting mosquito mortality.
The results show that temperature and age are signifcant predictors of vector mortality. In
addition, the Gompertz model ts the data on the adult A. gambiae and A. stephensi better
than the Weibull, Gamma, and the Exponential model. This implies that the mosquito data
survival in the laboratory is age-dependent. The findings of the present study are also
useful in parameterizing reliable mathematical models that examine the potential impact
of temperature as well as global warming on the transmission of malaria.
Citation
Master Dissertation in MathematicsPublisher
School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi
Description
Master Dissertation in Mathematics
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
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