Stochastic Application of Absorbing Markov Chain to Secondary Schools: a Case Study of Monrovia Consolidated Schools System (Mcss), Monrovia-liberia.

Abstract

Since the end of the prolonged civil war in Liberia in 2003, general enrolment in secondary schools has increased, a scenario that necessitates a signi cant amount of resources. Enrollment forecasting is a critical component of resource allocation budgeting and overall education sector growth planning. Education in primary and secondary schools receives a signi cant amount of public funding. It’s critical to keep track of Secondary School students’ overall development from enrollment to graduation in the three years allotted. The research was carried out in the Monrovia Consolidated School System (MCSS) to demonstrate the stochastic process of absorbing Markov Chain Techniques in studying the progress of students from class to class, to determine secondary completion and dropout rates, retention rates, and the expected duration of schooling by gender in the secondary schools of the Monrovia Consolidated School System (MCSS) from 2nd to 12th grades. The Markov Model concept has been widely utilized in single institutions of learning across the world, mostly in elementary and secondary schools, as well as universities and colleges, although there is no documented history of such use in Liberia. From 2017 to 2020, the target demographic was secondary enrolled students at the MCSS’s William V. S. Tubman, G.W. Gibson, and D-Twe high schools. Our ndings indicated that male students complete more classes than female students, and female dropout rates were greater at all levels when compared to male peers. Female students had a lower duration rate of schooling than their male counterparts, and the overall conclusion revealed that retention rates were lowest in 10th grade and greatest in 12th grade. Data source: O ce of the Director for public a airs and media services; MCSS.