Stochastic Application of Absorbing Markov Chain to Secondary Schools: a Case Study of Monrovia Consolidated Schools System (Mcss), Monrovia-liberia.
Abstract
Since the end of the prolonged civil war in Liberia in 2003, general enrolment in secondary
schools has increased, a scenario that necessitates a signi cant amount of resources. Enrollment
forecasting is a critical component of resource allocation budgeting and overall
education sector growth planning. Education in primary and secondary schools receives
a signi cant amount of public funding. It’s critical to keep track of Secondary School
students’ overall development from enrollment to graduation in the three years allotted.
The research was carried out in the Monrovia Consolidated School System (MCSS)
to demonstrate the stochastic process of absorbing Markov Chain Techniques in studying
the progress of students from class to class, to determine secondary completion and
dropout rates, retention rates, and the expected duration of schooling by gender in the
secondary schools of the Monrovia Consolidated School System (MCSS) from 2nd to 12th
grades.
The Markov Model concept has been widely utilized in single institutions of learning
across the world, mostly in elementary and secondary schools, as well as universities and
colleges, although there is no documented history of such use in Liberia. From 2017 to
2020, the target demographic was secondary enrolled students at the MCSS’s William V. S.
Tubman, G.W. Gibson, and D-Twe high schools. Our ndings indicated that male students
complete more classes than female students, and female dropout rates were greater at
all levels when compared to male peers. Female students had a lower duration rate of
schooling than their male counterparts, and the overall conclusion revealed that retention
rates were lowest in 10th grade and greatest in 12th grade.
Data source: O ce of the Director for public a airs and media services; MCSS.
Publisher
University of Nairobi
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
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