Trends and Dynamics in the Utilization of Insulin in Kiambu Level 5 Hospital

Abstract

The estimation of the demand for health commodities is an important aspect in the prevention of stock outs in health facilities. More so, given the numerous challenges that public health facilities in developing countries face regarding commodity procurement, accurate estimation of the commodities required is critical. Insulin therapy is a cornerstone in the management of diabetes aiding in abating diabetic complications. This study considered the use of time series models premised on the Box-Jenkins methodology Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method to explore the trends of insulin utilisation in Kiambu Level 5 County Referral Hospital and to forecast its consumption using monthly aggregates of insulin consumption from January 2014 to June 2020, including the COVID-19 period. The average annual consumption of insulin was 1359 (SD = 283) vials, with the consumption showing a generally decreasing linear trend with a maximum consumption of 2316 vials in 2014 and a minimum consumption of 661 vials in 2017. The maximum six-month forecast consumption of insulin was 103 vials in March 2019, while the minimum forecast consumption of insulin was 92 vials in January 2019 and the average forecast insulin consumption was 98 (SD = 2) vials. The maximum pre-Covid consumption of insulin was 38 vials, while the minimum consumption of insulin was 19 vials, with the average insulin consumption during this period being 30 (SD = 1) vials. The maximum post-Covid consumption of insulin was 43 vials, while the minimum consumption of insulin was 21 vials, with the average insulin consumption during this period being 30 (SD = 1) vials. There was no discernible difference in the patterns of consumption during these xi two time periods. The results are important to policy makers in the medical sector for planning the purchase and inventory maintenance of insulin stock in the county.