The Effects of Mount Kenya Glacier Recession on Water Supply and Community Livelihoods – a Case Study of Nyeri and Laikipia Counties, Kenya

Abstract

The case study was aimed at determining whether the watershed ecosystem beneficiaries are aware of deglaciation trends affecting Mount Kenya and it’s implication on their livelihood systems. The survey was guided by following specific objectives: a) To determine Mount Kenya glacier trends from the 1970’s to 2000’s, b) To investigate the perceived implications of glacier recession on river water supply and livelihoods with an emphasis on small scale irrigation, urban water use and pastoralism and c) To determine whether age, gender and level of education significantly influenced perception on availability of clear Adaptation and coping strategies for Glacier recession effects. Glacier cover change for the last four decades (1976- 2016 period) was determined through the analysis of Landsat satellite imagery using Arc GIS and the findings compared with local communities perception specifically on the leeward side of the mountain of which is an ASAL. The local perception survey on effects of glacier changes on river flow and livelihoods took place on August 2017 using a Self-Administered Likert Scale Standard Questionnaires; face-to-face interviewing 87 riparian residents along the Naromoru and Likii rivers, which included small scale farmers, low class urban residents and pastoralists. The respondents were selected through systematic random sampling. Kruskal-Wallis H test was used in testing the three Null hypotheses. In addition, a Non-Parametric Mann Whitney U Test was used to compare local perceptions based on gender, age and level of education at α=0.05 significance level. Satellite imagery analysis findings indicated a progressive glacier recession ranging from 1.86km2 in 1976 to about 0.17 km2 in 2016 arrived at through Landsat imagery analysis. These results were similar to the public perception survey on glacier change dynamics with a majority of respondents (67%) strongly agreeing that glaciers within Mt Kenya had decreased significantly in the last 40years study period. The study also found out that: - 66% of the irrigation zone respondents (along the Naromoru River), 60% of respondents within the semi-urban study zone (Likii Village) and 32% of respondents on the pastoralism zone agreed that Mt Kenya deglaciation had led to a reduced river discharge downstream. There was no significant difference between the glacier recession trend and in terms of age (P=0.713), gender (p=0.116) or education level (0.077). The study established a varying perception between the young and old, male and females, educated and uneducated respondents. The perception difference based on age was attributed to the contact duration of time with Mt Kenya ecosystem with respondents above 64 years of age easily recalling behavioral glacial change for the study period more than the younger respondents aged 25-34 years. The perception difference between males and females was attributed to the nature of Kenyan males whom are more mobile owing to their household responsibilities unlike females who mostly remains at home thus the male gender had clearer visual perspective of glacier retreat as they moved to different geographical locations within the area. In addition, there is a higher likelihood of the uneducated respondents’ to have clearer vision of actual glacier retreat trend due to a possibility that they had remained in the same environment longer without migrating elsewhere for formal education. The perceived effects of glacier recession on reduced river flows were as follows: 66% of the irrigation zone respondents agreed that reduced Naromoru river flow had affected irrigation; 27% of the Low class urban respondents agreed that reduced discharge in Likii River had negatively affected urban water use and finally 32% of the pastoralism study zone respondents agreed that decreased Likii river discharge had negatively affected their livelihood through reduced stocks sizes and type. However, all the respondents raised concern and feared about future water related tensions and conflicts as Mount Kenya glacier retreat progresses. Second and third Null Hypothesis tests results gave test statistics with P-Value being lesser than 0.05 Significance Level, thus they were rejected and their alternative adopted. Finally, these study findings are beneficial to National and County Governments, water project financiers, NGO’s, water users and all Mount Kenya ecosystem stakeholders as they endeavor to sustainably utilize and manage natural resources bearing in mind the hydrological implications of their actions on water supply, tourism, watershed services and livelihoods. These will enable them develop sound long term adaptation and coping strategies for the glacier recession effects.