Evaluation of the impact of family planning programmes on fertility in Kenya: An application of prevalence model

Abstract

A lot of family planning programmes have been set up by the Government and other Organizations in the Country, hence the need to evaluate the impact of these programmes on fertility. This is the major objective of this study. There arc at least nine methods that have been recommended by the United Nations for the evaluation of the impact of the programmes on fertility. In this study, only one method was used in evaluating the impact of family planning programmes on fertility in Kenya in 1989. This is the prevalence Model which is the latest technique of evaluation of the programme impact using Survey data developed by Bongaarts. It has two versions namely the Age specific prevalence model which is for the estimation of the births averted in each age group and method specific prevalence model for the estimation of the contribution of each of the methods to the total births averted. These two versions have been applied to Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (1989) data to evaluate the programme impact in Kenya in 1989. This was done for various differentials namely place of residence, work Status of women, education, ethnicity and religion. The findings show that in Kenya, programme contraception averts more births per woman in all age groups than non-programme contraception except in Eastern Province and among the Kamba women in particular in 1989. For fertile Kamba women non-programme contraception averts more births per woman than programme contraception in all age groups. Most births averted per woman arc in the age groups 25-29 to 35-39; with the highest estimates being in the age group 35-39. The results show that there exists a disparity between the births averted per woman by programme contraception in each age group by regions. The estimates of births diverted per woman in each age group are highest in Central Province and lowest in Nyanza and Western Provinces. The estimates of births averted per woman in each age group for each tribe also follow the same pattern. The estimates of births averted per woman in each age group by various variables considered show that there exist variations between the different categories of each variable; especially with respect to place of residence, work status of married women, and education of married women. The results from the method specific prevalence model showed that, Periodic Abstinence which is a non-programme method contributes more to the total births averted per woman than any other method, although in Kenya programme contraception averts more births per woman than non-programme contraception . This is also the ease for the fertile Kamba women. It also show that for the various variables considered as mentioned above there exists a set of methods, that averts most births in Kenya. This set comprises of Pill, IUD, Injection, Female Sterilization, and Periodic Abstinence. The methods avert more births per woman for fertile women who arc having Secondary plus level of education, married women who arc currently working and those staying in Urban areas. The male oriented methods contribute less to the births averted per woman for all these variables considered. Therefore, an increased impact of family planning programme on fertility in Kenya may be achieved if approached in several ways. It should be varied, and should include ways of reducing economic disparities between regions and individuals.