Forecasting maternal mortality ratio in Juba teaching hospital

Abstract

n an effort to reduce global maternal mortality, all countries that gathered at the United Nation Millennium Summit in 2000 agreed to incorporate maternal mortality as MDG-5. This was intended to improve maternal health by reducing maternal mortality ratio by three quarters by 2015. South Sudan is one of the United Nation countries with the highest mortality rate compared to other Countries worldwide. This study was conducted to model and forecast maternal mortality ratio (MMR) at the Juba Teaching Hospital (JTH) using the ARIMA time series model for the period of January 2008 to December 2014. Within the study period, there were 135 maternal deaths and about 29,711 deliveries, which accounts to MMR of 454 per 100,000 live births. The ARIMA (3, 0, 1) model adequately fitted Maternal Mortality Ratio data and was able to forecast monthly Maternal Mortality ratios at the facility for the period of January 2015 to December 2015.