Conflict Prediction Model in a Dynamic State
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Date
2015Author
Omwenga, VO
Singh, CB
Manene, MM
Pokhariyal, GP
Type
ArticleLanguage
enMetadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Environmental c
onflicts
arise as a consequence of
actions prevent
ing
or compel
ling
some outcome at
the resistance
to the actions.
More specifically, they are caused by anthropogenic activities tha
t strain
and damage the environment.
Modelling environmental conflict is one of the fundamental ways
providing means of solving them.
In order to understand and model
them
, it is
critical
to identify
potential
and/
or existing conflict causes
(structural ca
uses or proximate causes)
, as well as possible
factors contributing to peace.
In this paper, the dynamic time varying model for predicting
environmental conflict is developed
using
Bayesian theory
. The initial (state) conditions which play a
significant r
ole in the success of conflict resolution are estimated through a logistic probability model.
An analogy on the application of the model in
modelling
of environmentally
-
induced conflict is
given
Citation
J. Meteorol. Rel. Sci., 7:3, 2015Subject
Bayesian ruleEnvironmental
Conflic Dynamic state
Initial conditions
Logistic probability model
Ultimatum game
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
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