Conflict Prediction Model in a Dynamic State

Abstract

Environmental c onflicts arise as a consequence of actions prevent ing or compel ling some outcome at the resistance to the actions. More specifically, they are caused by anthropogenic activities tha t strain and damage the environment. Modelling environmental conflict is one of the fundamental ways providing means of solving them. In order to understand and model them , it is critical to identify potential and/ or existing conflict causes (structural ca uses or proximate causes) , as well as possible factors contributing to peace. In this paper, the dynamic time varying model for predicting environmental conflict is developed using Bayesian theory . The initial (state) conditions which play a significant r ole in the success of conflict resolution are estimated through a logistic probability model. An analogy on the application of the model in modelling of environmentally - induced conflict is given