Modeling the health impact and cost threshold of long-acting ART for adolescents and young adults in Kenya
Date
2020Author
Culhane, Jessica
Sharma, Monisha
Wilson, Kate
Roberts, Allen
Mugo, Cyrus
Wamalwa, Dalton
Inwani, Irene
Barnabas, Ruanne V
Kohler, Pamela K
Type
ArticleLanguage
enMetadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Background: Despite high efficacy of oral antiretroviral therapy (ART), viral suppression among adolescents and young adults (AYA) living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains low. Compared to daily oral ART, bimonthly long-acting injectable ART (LA-ART) may simplify adherence, improve clinical outcomes, and decrease HIV transmission in this priority population. However, LA-ART will likely cost more than oral ART and the cost threshold at which LA-ART will be cost effective in SSA has not been evaluated.
Methods: We adapted a mathematical model of HIV transmission and progression in Kenya to include HIV acquisition and viral suppression among AYA (age 10-24). We projected the population-level health and economic impact of providing LA-ART to AYA over a 10-year time horizon assuming oral ART costs of US$233 annually and a two-month duration of viral suppression per LA-ART injection. We calculated the maximum cost at which switching from oral to LA-ART would be considered cost-effective, using thresholds of $500 and $1,508 per disability-adjusted life year averted (WHO's threshold of HIV treatment interventions and Kenya's gross domestic product per capita).
Findings: Assuming 85% of AYA switch from oral to injectable formulations, LA-ART is estimated to prevent 40,540 infections and 20,480 deaths over 10 years. The maximum increase in the annual per-person cost of receiving LA-ART is estimated to be $89 and $236 for LA-ART to be cost-effective under the thresholds of $500 and $1,508 per DALY averted, respectively. The cost threshold was lower when non-adherent oral ART AYA users were assumed to be less likely to switch to LA-ART.
Interpretation: Providing LA-ART to AYA can be cost-effective in Kenya if it is less than twice the cost of oral ART. Long-acting injectable ART for priority populations with low viral suppression has the potential to cost-effectively avert disability and death.
Funding: National Institutes of Health (R01 HD085807; PI: Kohler).
Citation
Culhane J, Sharma M, Wilson K, Roberts DA, Mugo C, Wamalwa D, Inwani I, Barnabas RV, Kohler PK. Modeling the health impact and cost threshold of long-acting ART for adolescents and young adults in Kenya. EClinicalMedicine. 2020 Jul 16;25:100453. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100453. PMID: 32954235; PMCID: PMC7486332.Publisher
University of Nairobi
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
- Faculty of Health Sciences (FHS) [10378]
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